A Dynamic Fitting Strategy for Physiological Models: A Case Study of a Cardiorespiratory Model for the Simulation of Incremental Aerobic Exercise

Using mathematical models of physiological systems in medicine has allowed for the development of diagnostic, treatment, and medical educational tools. However, their complexity restricts, in most cases, their application for predictive, preventive, and personalized purposes. Although there are strategies that reduce the complexity of applying models based on fitting techniques, most of them are focused on a single instant of time, neglecting the effect of the system’s temporal evolution. The objective of this research was to introduce a dynamic fitting strategy for physiological models with an extensive array of parameters and a constrained amount of experimental data. The proposed strategy focused on obtaining better predictions based on the temporal trends in the system’s parameters and being capable of predicting future states. The study utilized a cardiorespiratory model as a case study. Experimental data from a longitudinal study of healthy adult subjects undergoing aerobic exercise were used for fitting and validation. The model predictions obtained in a steady state using the proposed strategy and the traditional single-fit approach were compared. The most successful outcomes were primarily linked to the proposed strategy, exhibiting better overall results regarding accuracy and behavior than the traditional population fitting approach at a single instant in time. The results evidenced the usefulness of the dynamic fitting strategy, highlighting its use for predictive, preventive, and personalized applications.