DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpae007 ISSN: 1471-678X

A Flexible Time-to-Build Model of Supply Chain Disruptions

James Kahn
  • Applied Mathematics
  • Management Science and Operations Research
  • Strategy and Management
  • General Economics, Econometrics and Finance
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Management Information Systems

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of temporary supply chain disruptions in a general equilibrium model with multiple stages of production for capital goods and a flexible time-to-build structure. Production disruptions at one or more stages result in declines in overall shipments and increases in the ratios of unfilled orders and work-in-process inventories to shipments. The model is calibrated to industries in durable goods manufacturing during the Covid-19 pandemic, and is shown to generate realistic dynamic responses to temporary production disruptions.

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