Analysis of Factors Influencing the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Carbon Intensity in Western China

Understanding the spatio-temporal differentiation of carbon intensity factors is crucial for setting scientific and reasonable carbon emission reduction targets. This study, based on relevant data from the western regions for the years 2010–2019, analyzes the influencing factors of the spatio-temporal distribution differences in carbon intensity in these areas. Additionally, the Grey Forecasting Model was utilized to predict the development trend of average carbon intensity in the western regions. The results indicate the following: (1) The temporal dimension of carbon intensity in the western regions shows an overall declining trend with local rebounds, while the high-value areas of spatial carbon intensity are concentrated in the northern part of the study area. (2) Per capita Gross Domestic Product, energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product and investment in industrial pollution control have a positive impact on carbon intensity, whereas investment in the energy industry and per capita disposable income of residents have a negative impact. (3) Energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product is the factor with the highest degree of explanation in univariate analysis; interaction detection results suggest that the core factors of spatial distribution differences in carbon intensity are energy consumption and urban development. (4) Predictions using the Grey Forecasting Model for the development of carbon intensity in the western regions show a year-by-year decline, consistent with carbon intensity control targets. Based on these conclusions, this paper proposes policy recommendations focusing on improving regional economic coordination mechanisms, increasing investment in industrial pollution control, managing energy industry expenditures, adjusting the proportion of the urban population, and enhancing the per capita disposable income of residents.