The subsea clamp connector is susceptible to sealing and locking failures over its lifetime in harsh marine environments and complex loading conditions, posing a serious challenge to the safe development of subsea oil and gas fields. Accurately predicting the reliability of the subsea clamp connector under realistic and complex operating conditions is therefore an important guarantee of its safe operation. Considering the main structural characteristic parameters of the subsea clamp connector, this paper conducts a reliability analysis using finite element numerical simulation combined with multiple response surface methodology (MRSM), based on the seal failure and yield failure criteria. The applicability has been verified through the application of subsea clamp connector in the Bohai Sea. The results show that the failure probability of the system is mainly affected by the radius of the seal, the contact angle of the upper and lower flanges and internal pressure. Considering the influence of various factors, the reliability of the connector was calculated to be 98.73%, and the reliability was verified by the sealing performance test. This paper provides a practical method for the reliability analysis of the subsea clamp connector structure under the comprehensive consideration of multiple factors, and provides a new technology to ensure the safe operation of subsea oil and gas fields.

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