Assessing the impact of information-induced self-protection on Zika transmission: A mathematical modeling approach

Abstract

As per the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) suggestions, personal protection via adopting precautionary measures is one of the most effective control aspects to avoid Zika infection in the absence of suitable medical treatment. This personal protection further can be enhanced and explored by propagating information about disease prevalence. Therefore, in this study, we wish to see the effect of information on Zika transmission by formulating a compartmental mathematical model that quantifies the effect of an individual’s behavioral response as self-protection due to information. Furthermore, the basic reproduction number was calculated using the next-generation matrix technique. The model analysis was carried out to determine the local and global stability properties of equilibrium points. In addition, the model shows the occurrence of forward bifurcation when the reproduction number crosses unity. To understand the impact of various model parameters, we conducted a sensitivity analysis using both the normalized sensitivity index and the partial rank correlation coefficient methods. Moreover, we performed numerical simulations to assess the influence of important parameters on the model’s behavior for Zika prevalence. Our study accentuates that as information-induced self-protection increases, the prevalence of Zika infection will be at a very minimum level, and this observation is in line with WHO suggestions.