Benchmarking Measures for the Adaptation of New Irrigation Solutions for Small Farms in Egypt

The aim of this study is to construct and validate an expert system to predict the adaptation of irrigation technologies, water-saving strategies, and monitoring tools by small-scale farmers in Egypt. The research investigates the impact of economic, educational, environmental, and social factors on adaptation rates. To build the expert system, extensive knowledge was collected from experts, key concepts were identified, and production rules were created to generate tailored scenarios. These scenarios utilize the empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF), selecting the scenario with the highest ECDF as the optimal irrigation technology. This approach ensures well-informed, data-driven decisions that are tailored to specific conditions. The expert system was evaluated under the conditions of ten small farms in Egypt. The results indicate that water cost and availability are significant drivers of technology adaptation. Specifically, subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) demonstrated an adaptation percentage of 75% at high water costs, with probabilities of 0.67 and 0.33, while soil mulching (SM) showed a 75% adaptation rate with a probability of 0.33 in high-cost scenarios. Conversely, when water availability was high, the adaptation percentage for all techniques was zero, but it reached 100% adaptation with a probability of 0.76 for SM and SDI and a probability of 1 for variable number of drippers (VND) and the use of sensors as monitoring tools during water shortages. Educational attainment and professional networks enhance the adaptation of advanced technologies and monitoring tools, emphasizing the role of knowledge and community engagement. Environmental conditions, including soil texture and salinity levels, directly affect the choice of irrigation methods and water-saving practices, highlighting the need for localized solutions. The source of irrigation water, whether groundwater or surface water, influences the preference for water-saving technologies. The study underscores the importance of tailored approaches to address the challenges and opportunities faced by small farmers in Egypt, promoting sustainable agriculture and efficient water management. The evaluation findings reveal that SDI is the most favored irrigation technology, with a probability of 0.55, followed by variable number of drippers (VND) at 0.38 and ultralow drip irrigation (ULDI) at 0.07 across various scenarios for small farmers. Regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) and SM are equally preferred water-saving strategies, each with a probability of 0.50. Sensors emerged as the preferred monitoring tool, boasting a high probability of 0.94. The analysis reveals the critical roles of economic pressures, educational levels, environmental conditions, and social networks in shaping the adaptation of sustainable agricultural practices.