Between cyber retaliation and escalation: Explaining the variations in state compliance with the principle of proportionality

I examine how the proportionality principle shapes state responses to a cyberattack. I do so by investigating variation in the effects of the principle of proportionality on the state response. The variation accounts for four types of state response. First, if states respond to a first strike in a proportionate manner, they are in compliance with the principle, and attackers are likely to take it as an indication of willingness to honor the principle. Second, states may react to attackers with an excessive response in violation of the principle, which would force attackers to react as or more harshly. Third, states may accidentally make a proportionate response when they in fact seek to impose excessive harm on attackers. Finally, states may generate an excessive response by error when they in fact seek to comply with the principle.

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