Development and validation of osteoporosis risk assessment score, ORAS, in heart failure patients: comparison with the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA)
Ryo Numazawa, Satoshi Katano, Toshiyuki Yano, Masayuki Koyama, Ryohei Nagaoka, Yusuke Fujisawa, Kotaro Yamano, Suguru Honma, Katsuhiko Ohori, Hidemichi Kouzu, Masaki Katayose, Masato Furuhashi, Kazufumi Tsuchihashi, Akiyoshi Hashimoto- Advanced and Specialized Nursing
- Medical–Surgical Nursing
- Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
Abstract
Aim
Osteoporosis is prevalent and is associated with poor prognosis in heart failure (HF) patients. However, bone mineral density (BMD) measurement by a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) scan is not always available in a daily clinical setting and large-scale population-based studies.
Methods
A single-center, cross-sectional observational study was conducted with 387 patients (median age: 77 years [interquartile range: 68 to 83 years]; 37% women). BMDs were measured by DEXA scans, and osteoporosis was diagnosed as ≤ -2.5 standard deviation of the BMDs in healthy young adults. Osteoporosis risk assessment score (ORAS) was developed using significant predictors from a logistic regression model for osteoporosis and was subsequently validated.
Results
Osteoporosis was found in 103 (27%) of the 387 HF patients. Multivariate logistic regression analyses yielded the ORAS based on sex, BMI, handgrip strength, and anti-coagulant therapy utilization. The C-index of ORAS in the developmental set (0.796, 95% confidence interval: 0.747 to 0.845) was similar to the bootstrap validation of the prediction model (0.784), and tended to be higher than that of the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA). A nomogram of ORAS, established on the basis of the final logistic regression model, demonstrated 100% sensitivity at the lowest score (35 points), with an optimal cutoff point of 127 points, yielding 85% sensitivity and 62% specificity.
Conclusions
ORAS exhibits superior predictive performance to OSTA in predicting osteoporosis in HF patients, establishing itself as a valuable tool for early detection in both daily clinical practice and large-scale population-based studies.