EU Member State Support to Ukraine

Abstract

The EU and its member states have provided an unprecedented amount of military, humanitarian and financial aid to Ukraine after Russia's attack on February 24, 2022. However, while some EU member states have provided a disproportionately high level of support to Ukraine, other member states committed an unexpectedly low level of aid. This article aims to explain the diverging levels of EU member state support to Ukraine by building on theories of military burden-sharing. Methodologically, it applies the innovative fit robustness procedure of Coincidence Analysis (CNA). The results of the analysis indicate that conditions derived from theories of military burden-sharing can explain support to Ukraine. More specifically, the pattern of support was (mainly) explained by the level of threat that each member state faced from Russia, past military investments and public opinion. Conversely, in contrast to the frequently tested and confirmed exploitation hypothesis, the economic size of the member states did not have an impact on their support to Ukraine.