International trade and Ukraine's pursuit of self‐determination

Abstract

In this research, we assess the international trade implications of Ukraine's pursuit of self‐determination through the lens of the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement and the contemporaneous war with Russia in the years preceding the 2022 Russian Invasion. To do so, we construct a dataset with annual, bilateral export and import flows for Ukraine and a set of comparator countries at the 6‐digit level of the Harmonised Tariff Schedule (HS) for years 2000–2019. Using this data, we nest a difference‐in‐difference design within a series of econometric gravity models to estimate the effects on the sectoral and geographic composition of Ukrainian trade. Our results indicate a major re‐direction of exports towards the EU and away from Russia. Trade outcomes are one of many considerations that led to Ukraine's pursuit of EU integration.