Lepidopteran scales in lake sediments as a reliable proxy for spruce budworm outbreak events in the boreal forest of Eastern Canada

Characterizing disturbance regimes over long time scales is paramount for describing and identifying their variability. The most important biotic disturbance in the eastern Canadian boreal forest is the defoliation caused by the eastern spruce budworm, a moth of the insect order Lepidoptera. Lepidopteran scales have recently been used to reconstruct spruce budworm population fluctuations throughout the Holocene. However, this novel proxy has yet to be compared to an independent proxy. This study aimed to determine whether lepidopteran scales found in the surface sediments of boreal lakes tracked large spruce budworm populations, that is, outbreaks, using yearly aerial surveys (1967–present) of spruce budworm defoliation as an independent proxy. Scales were extracted (1 cm resolution) from the top 20 cm of ²¹⁰Pb-dated sediment cores recovered from nine lakes. To identify significant abundance peaks of scales in the time series, we removed background noise using a modified version of CharAnalysis. A 100-year smoothing window width combined with a 60th percentile threshold yielded the highest true positive and true negative occurrences, and the lowest false positive and false negative occurrences, with values of 0.69 and 0.70 for Cohen’s Kappa and Matthews correlation coefficient, respectively. Our findings demonstrate that lepidopteran scales are a suitable proxy for identifying spruce budworm outbreaks in the sediment record enabling the reconstruction of budworm and other lepidopteran species outbreak dynamics at millennial timescales.