Reconsidering the Existence of a Trend in the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) From 1979 to 2017

Abstract

An enhanced aerosol layer, known as the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL), has been observed within the seasonal Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA) since the late 1990s. Given the apparently abrupt appearance of this layer based on observations, it has been speculated that it originates from increasing human made emissions in Asia. However, the ATAL confinement is a result of a dynamical feature and does not purely consist of human made components. We herein investigate the possible existence of an ATAL earlier than the late 1990s. We exploit earliest possible, high quality space‐based aerosol observations from Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment, or SAGE (1979–1981), SAGE III/ISS (2017, ongoing) and revisit SAGE II (1984–2005) data analysis. We find that seasonal averaged solar occultation aerosol measurements (past and present) can neither be used to exclude the existence of the ATAL, nor to infer a significant trend. However, first CAM5‐MAM7 simulations indicate the presence of an ATAL signal for the tested years 1979 and 1980, with a human made component. We hypothesize that the human made component of the ATAL likely occurred since at least the 1970s, while the natural ATAL component (e.g., from dust) has always existed. Extended simulation based ATAL evolution studies are therefore the most reliable source for early ATAL investigations.