Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Vegetation Productivity and Its Response to Meteorological Factors in China

Climate is one of the key factors driving changes in vegetation, and the response of the vegetation to climate often occurs with a time delay. However, research on the cumulative lagged response of the vegetation to meteorological factors in large-scale regions is limited. Therefore, this study first evaluated the performance of the Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) products provided by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Penman–Monteith–Leuning (PML) over the past 20 years in China and then determined the lagged relationships between the GPP and major meteorological factors in different regions and land-use types in China based on a partial correlation analysis. The results indicate that (1) GPP_PML outperforms GPP_MODIS products in the regional context of China; (2) China’s regional GPP has shown a fluctuating upward trend over the past 20 years, with a stepwise increase in the multi-year average from the northwest inland to the southeast coastal regions, and a higher contribution from the southern regions than the northern ones; (3) unlike the recent upward trend in regional temperatures, both precipitation and radiation have decreased, with these two factors showing completely opposite multi-year trends in most regions; and (4) the proportion of regions with lagged effects of the GPP on meteorological factors is higher than those with cumulative effects in China. Among these, GPP exhibits a higher proportion of a 3-month lagged response to precipitation, which is particularly pronounced at altitudes between 500 and 2500 m and above 5500 m. the proportion of the areas with no lag cumulative response to temperature and radiation with GPP in China is the highest due to the influence of more barren land and grassland in the northwest interior. Simultaneously, grassland and barren land have a higher proportion of the non-lagged cumulative responses to temperature and precipitation. This study contributes to our understanding of vegetation dynamics in the context of global climate change and provides a theoretical foundation for regional ecological conservation and high-quality coordinated development.