Understanding the Role of the North Pacific Victoria Mode in ENSO Predictability Based on the NMME Hindcasts

Abstract

The North Pacific Victoria mode (VM) is considered a precursor signal of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Understanding the role of the VM in ENSO predictability is essential for improving ENSO prediction. Utilizing the North American Multimodel Ensemble hindcasts, this study demonstrates that the VM can increase the potential predictability (measured by the signal‐to‐noise ratio) of ENSO in most forecast models. The well simulated VM‐ENSO relationship in these models contributes to the greater potential predictability of ENSO during the VM years. Our results show that accurately capturing the VM‐ENSO relationship is highly beneficial for improving ENSO prediction skill within forecast models.