Validating a variable-instar, climate-based phenology model for the Asian longhorned beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) using field data from South Carolina

Abstract

The Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis (ALB, Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), is a federally regulated invasive species capable of infesting several different genera of hardwood trees. Accurate knowledge of ALB’s phenology is critical for the effective implementation of management and eradication plans. We updated the ALBLT prediction model and used empirical data collected in South Carolina, USA to validate ALBLT v. 2.0. The new model largely agreed with ALB life stages found in field collections, except for late instars and pupae. We also ran the model at 8 other potentially high-risk cities in the contiguous United States with latitudes ranging from 28°N (Tampa, FL) to 41°N (Chicago, IL) to predict how long a single ALB generation might take to develop in these environments. Model predictions ranged from a 2–3-yr lifecycle in Chicago to a potential life cycle of < 1 yr in Tampa. These predictions can help inform managers and invasive species specialists should ALB be found in new environments, and these data can aid in developing an adequate management and eradication plan.